Cover of Dead Companies Walking: How a Hedge Fund Manager Finds Opportunity in Unexpected Places
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Dead Companies Walking: How a Hedge Fund Manager Finds Opportunity in Unexpected Places

How a Hedge Fund Manager Finds Opportunity in Unexpected Places

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Dead Companies Walking is an investing book written from the other side of the table: Scott Fearon, a short-selling specialist with over three decades of experience, narrates how he has made money by systematically betting against declining businesses.

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Fearon analyzes the common patterns that lead companies to fail. After decades shorting declining companies, he identified six repetitive mistakes executives make before collapse: overconfidence in past success, failure to adapt, excessive expansion, key-person dependence, risky financial strategy, and loss of touch with reality. Fascinating for value investors and short sellers.

Our review

Dead Companies Walking is an investing book written from the other side of the table: Scott Fearon, a short-selling specialist with over three decades of experience, narrates how he has made money by systematically betting against declining businesses. What distinguishes this book from other short-selling texts is its focus on management behavior patterns — not just financial statements — that predict corporate failure. Fearon identified six recurring mistakes that executives make before their companies fail: overconfidence in the recent past, false analogies with other industries, excessive dependence on a single customer or product, failure to adapt to technological change, founder overconfidence, and excessive leverage. The style is direct and peppered with anecdotes from management meetings Fearon conducted throughout his career, making the book more concrete than most analytical manuals. The limitation is that the book tends to make failure appear more predictable than it actually is: survivorship bias skews any retrospective narrative.

Who it's for

For short-side investors and analysts who want to understand the management behavior patterns that precede corporate failure; also valuable for long-only investors seeking to avoid these types of companies.

Key takeaways

  • The six management mistakes Fearon identifies as failure precursors are as behavioral as they are financial: financial statement analysis only tells half the story.
  • Meetings with executives of struggling companies reveal patterns of denial and rationalization that are rarely detected by reading annual reports alone.
  • Short-side investing requires special discipline against the market's structural optimism: most analysts and media have incentives to be constructive.
  • Excessive leverage is the multiplier of all other mistakes: companies that might survive one or two of the other failures often cannot survive when combined with excessive debt.
Fact

Scott Fearon is founder and president of Crown Capital Management, based in California, where he has actively managed short positions for over thirty years. Dead Companies Walking was published in 2015.

Topics short sellingcorporate failurehedge fundbusiness analysisinvesting